Is the American public ready to predict and bet on theatrical box office returns? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe we should re-visit Oliver Stone’s Wall Street. But Americans are that much closer to having that decision made for them by Congress after film futures were signaled the go-ahead by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a pivotal step in the on-going approval process.
Now for the highest hurdle. (Between you and me), I’m not so sure Congress is enthusiastic enough about film futures to embrace them for the long haul. Nobody wants another Bernie Madoff on their hands. And I bet film futures isn’t “top of the list” for these guys. Take a gander at the shady insider mess going down at Disney and you’ll see just how problematic this whole film futures idea may be. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the F.B.I. intercepted an attempt of an assistant to Disney’s head of corporate communications, who tried to transmit Disney’s early quarterly reports in return for cash. Shortly thereafter, unreliable reports blitzed the internet that Disney had plans to sell ABC.
This is before the Film Futures Era. Just think of the potential magnitude of corruption and fraud this new kind of business can breed after the fact.
Film futures could very well turn the Tinseltown tradition into a trigger-happy, every-man-for-himself proverbial war-zone. Think about all of the possibilities for corruption that exist. It takes hundreds of people (more often than not) to put together a theatrically-distributed film. These people all have a stake in the process and are therefore all empowered to contribute to the success of a film. That being said, these people may as well be termed Hollywood day traders–their work and involvement in the film will largely determine whether the American public sees their film, which in turn determines how much money the American public will profit. So think about the possibilities here, folks. For all we know theatrical exhibitors can become the NBA-equivalent of referees, being paid off to allow or bar certain films from being shown in their theaters.
With these ideas considered, it is still impossible to physically make someone pay for a movie ticket. Though I doubt there isn’t someone out there already figuring out a way to conquer this.
Film futures has its merits. By directly involving the American movie-going audience into the process, the industry itself is bound to garner a lot of interest and attention, potentially resulting in another golden revival for Hollywood. The audience with the highest cinematic IQ can now apply a financial perspective to the business (again, for better or for worse). But admittedly, there’s no country better prepared and more experienced in movie-watching to take on this kind of challenge.
Stay tuned for more commentary on film futures. I’m not quite sure how this will all go down, but I guarantee there will be drama.
Charlie Wachtel is a Senior Writer for The Film Crusade and Founder of www.filmcrusade.com.
